FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF GUESTS IN RAYONG PROVINCE BY USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTING AND EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE METHODS

Abstract

            This research aimed to compare the efficiency of methods for forecasting the number of monthly guests in Rayong Province and to analyze the results of those forecasts. The data used in the study consisted of the number of monthly guests in Rayong Province from January 2023 to August 2024. The forecasting methods employed in the study included the simple moving average, exponential smoothing, and exponential moving average techniques. The root mean square error (RMSE) was used as the metric for evaluating forecasting efficiency. The findings revealed that: 1) the most efficient forecasting method was the exponential smoothing technique, followed by the exponential moving average method; and 2) the forecasted values and the actual number of guests were within the same range. Additionally, the number of guests in Rayong Province did not increase compared to the period preceding the forecast. The research findings underscored the necessity for Rayong Province to implement urgent measures to increase the number of monthly guests.