THAILAND’S EXPORT CHALLENGES UNDER THE MULTILATERAL TRADING SYSTEM: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TRADE PROTECTIONIST MEASURES UNDER THE GATT AND WTO LEGAL FRAMEWORK

Abstract

            This academic article analyzes the vulnerability of the global trading order in 2026 amid geopolitical and economic polarization and the transition toward a new paradigm of trade protectionism that emphasizes the use of unilateral measures. In particular, it examines the application of Section 122 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 to create non-tariff barriers and additional tariff barriers, which directly affects the stability of bound tariff rates and global supply chains.
            From the perspective of international law, the analysis indicates potential risks of violations of fundamental principles under the provisions of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), particularly the principles of most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment and national treatment, through the use of disguised green measures in strategic industries such as electric vehicles and processed foods. Quantitative analysis projects that, in 2026, Thailand’s exports could contract significantly by as much as 3.1%, representing estimated losses of more than USD 323 billion, and could result in a 1.48% decline in gross domestic product (GDP), owing to the end of the phenomenon of accelerated advance exports.
            The synthesis of the findings in accordance with the research objectives indicates that unilateral tariff measures and disguised green measures imposed by trading partners tend to conflict with obligations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization (WTO), particularly the principles of most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment and national treatment. This article synthesizes knowledge derived from WTO jurisprudence, including the Cigarettes case (DS371) and the Shrimp case (DS343), to establish a systematic legal strategy for pursuing remedies through the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). It also proposes strategic approaches centered on accelerating the expansion of free trade agreement networks under the exception provided by Article XXIV of the GATT in order to diversify trade risks, together with restructuring private-sector production toward carbon neutrality. These measures would help overcome environmental trade barriers and sustainably enhance Thailand’s competitiveness in the global marketplace.