Thailand and The World Economy

The Effect of Exchange Rate, Gold Price and Oil Price on Stock Markets

2024-12-20T16:54:18+07:00

This study examines the effects of the real effective exchange rate (REER), real gold price, and real oil price on real stock markets in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and South Korea from January 2005 to August 2025 using linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models. The findings indicate that fluctuations in the REER and real oil price generally depress stock markets in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea, while enhancing Malaysia’s stock market performance. Changes in real gold prices increase stock market returns in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand but reduce them in Indonesia and South Korea. An appreciation of REER benefits Malaysia’s stock market but adversely affects the other economies, whereas a depreciation of REER supports Malaysia and Singapore’s stock markets while harming stock markets of the other economies. Rising and falling real gold prices generally elevate stock markets across all countries. This study offers valuable guidance for policymakers in the management of stock market risk, including through hedging strategies using futures and options.

Analysis of the Rice Commodity Supply Chain Value in Central Java Province, Indonesia

2024-07-20T17:14:12+07:00

This study examines the rice supply chain in Central Java, Indonesia, focusing on distribution patterns, price formation mechanisms, and the broader implications for food security. The study uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, including descriptive statistics, stakeholder analysis, and network visualization, to map the flow of rice from producers to consumers. The research identifies significant inefficiencies within the supply chain, primarily due to the dominance of intermediaries, which leads to inflated prices for consumers and minimal income for farmers, particularly smallholders. The findings show that rice prices fluctuate significantly, influenced by factors such as weather variability, fertilizer shortages, and limited access to capital. These issues are compounded by inadequate infrastructure and gender disparities in access to agricultural resources. Based on these findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations aimed at strengthening farmer organizations, such as Gapoktan, improving agricultural infrastructure, enhancing access to fertilizers, promoting gender equality in agriculture, and introducing price stabilization mechanisms. These recommendations seek to enhance the efficiency and equity of the rice supply chain, improve farmers' livelihoods, and strengthen food security in Central Java.

The Dynamic Interactions of CO2 Emissions and Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in G20 Countries: A Panel VAR Approach

2024-08-31T20:12:10+07:00

The interactions among CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth are highly interconnected, especially among the G20 countries, and significantly impact global CO₂ emissions and the global economy. Therefore, we need a more comprehensive understanding to take action to harmonize economic growth with sustainable development. This research will examine the dynamic interaction between C0₂ emissions and renewable energy consumption on economic growth in G20 countries. In addition, this study uses Panel Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology over the period 1990 to 2022 and includes several critical phases. This included unit root tests to assess the statistical validity of the data, cointegration tests to determine temporal changes among the variables, and impulse response function tests along with variance decomposition to determine the impact of shocks to one variable on another. The study findings show a correlation between emissions, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth in G20 countries. The results show that CO₂ emissions have a favorable short-term effect, boosting GDP growth and economic activity. In contrast, C0₂ emissions and GDP show negative consequences in the long run. In addition, we confirm that the short-term correlation between renewable energy consumption and GDP is negative. However, the utilization of renewable energy sources has a positive impact in the long run. Therefore, G20 countries should implement renewable energy policies to promote economic growth, achieve sustainable development goals, and mitigate C0₂ emissions in the short and long term.

Nonlinear Dependence and Dynamic Interactions Between LAK per USD and LAK per THB Exchange Rates: A Wavelet and Quantile Cross-Spectral Analysis

2024-12-20T09:53:03+07:00

This study analyzes the intricate linkages and dynamic interactions between the Lao Kip (LAK), U.S. Dollar (USD), and Thai Baht (THB) exchange rates from January 1990 to February 2024, utilizing wavelet coherence and quantile cross-spectral analysis. This research identifies significant interconnectedness and co-movement patterns by evaluating interconnections in both temporal and frequency domains, thus addressing a crucial gap in the context of Laos. A quantile coherency study indicates robust synchronization at the 0.95 quantile amid extreme market conditions, with coherency values above 0.6 at lower frequencies, although weaker yet positive correlations (0.2-0.4) are noted at the 0.05 quantile. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals intervals of intensified co-movement throughout the Asian Financial Crisis (1997-2003) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2024), emphasizing long-term cycles ranging from 16 to 64 months. Cross-wavelet power analysis verifies the preeminence of the LAK/USD exchange rate, which often precedes the LAK/THB, highlighting the systemic significance of the U.S. dollar. The findings indicate the Lao economy's susceptibility to exogenous shocks over different time frames and emphasize the necessity for synchronized monetary policy and strong hedging strategies.

The Influence of Environmental Concerns on Electric Vehicle Purchase Decisions in Emerging Urban Markets: An Integrated Generalized Structured Component Analysis Approach

2024-12-04T18:22:25+07:00

This study examines the factors influencing electric vehicle (EV) purchase decisions in Bangkok, employing Integrated Generalized Structured Component Analysis (IGSCA) to test a causal relationship model. We investigated the mediating roles of Information Search and Evaluation of Alternatives in the relationship between Perception of Needs and the final Purchase Decision (modeled as Vehicle Brand preference). Data were collected from potential EV buyers using a validated questionnaire. The analysis utilized IGSCA for its ability to handle mixed-factor component models, complemented by confirmatory factor analysis to validate the measurement model. Additionally, we employed moderation analysis to examine the interaction effects between key variables. The structural equation modeling revealed significant mediation effects, with the model demonstrating robust fit and explaining a substantial portion of Vehicle Brand variance. Notably, the hypothesized moderating role of Evaluation of Alternatives was statistically significant (β = 0.108, p < 0.001), revealing that EA strengthens the relationship between Information Search and Vehicle Brand. These findings suggest a paradigm shift in EV marketing strategies, emphasizing the importance of engaging consumers in comprehensive evaluation processes. For policymakers, our results underscore the need for a holistic approach to EV promotion, integrating consumer education with infrastructure development. This research advances the understanding of consumer behavior in emerging technology markets, providing a valuable framework for future studies on sustainable transportation adoption. Our methodological approach offers a robust template for analyzing complex consumer decision-making processes in high-involvement purchases.

Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality? Evidence from Regional-level data in Thailand

2025-02-28T09:06:11+07:00

This study investigates whether monetary policy affects regional income inequality in Thailand through different channels. The study uses regional-level data from 2011 to 2022 and employs a panel ARDL approach, FGLS and SUR estimates. Monetary policy effectively propagates regional income inequality through aggregate income channels, housing price channels, and interest rate channels. Those channels show that easing monetary policy can mitigate regional income inequality. A negative coefficient is found for the housing price channel, indicating that the easing of monetary policy induces an increase in housing prices but a decrease in rental prices, so the low-end distribution, who mostly cannot afford the house would benefit from a lower rental rate. In addition, Bangkok Metropolitan Region is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy than other regions. These findings suggest new insights for policymakers and the government an easing monetary measure can mitigate regional inequality via economic stimulation through various channels. Therefore, the central bank may need to consider the impacts of monetary policy on regional disparities, as each region has distinct characteristics that lead to varying effects.

The Impact of Corruption on the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Stabilizing Economy: A Case Study of the ASEAN – 5 Countries

2025-03-21T16:32:59+07:00

This study aims to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stabilizing output fluctuation in the business cycle by taking account of corruption level for five countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia) in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from 1996 to 2019. Based on voracity effect theory, a poor institutional quality due to high corruption levels put more pressure on government spending during economic booms which limited fiscal space during economic recessions. This effect could reduce the effectiveness of fiscal stabilization on output fluctuation in business cycle. This study utilizes Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), where the results address fiscal stabilization in the long run perspective. The result suggests that discretionary fiscal policy is countercyclical and can stabilize output fluctuation by 7 percent. When the interaction term of discretionary fiscal with corruption variables is included, the stabilizing effect reduces from 0.7 percent to 0.36 percent. The result shows there is a small reduction in countercycle response for Singapore, contrary to Malaysia, which has a large reduction in countercycle response, as the interaction terms are included. Meanwhile, fiscal stabilization for Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines is slightly reduced to a small and insignificant effect.

Health Insurance Utilization in Vietnam: Exploring Barriers and Determinants in the Mekong Delta

2025-06-03T10:42:27+07:00

Health insurance constitutes a vital component of social security policies, intended to protect residents’ health and well-being. Nevertheless, despite its widespread availability, the use of health insurance cards among patients in Vietnam remains limited, influenced by a range of objective and subjective factors. This study aims to investigate the key determinants shaping patients’ decisions to utilize health insurance cards for medical examination and treatment. Data were gathered through structured interviews with 400 patients at a distinguished private hospital in the Mekong Delta, utilizing a pre-designed questionnaire and a convenience sampling method. The binary logit regression analysis reveals several significant findings. Notably, older patients demonstrate a greater propensity to rely on health insurance to mitigate medical expenses, reflecting heightened health concerns with age. Additionally, the occupation of patients plays a pivotal role in their decision-making process; individuals employed in sectors such as education, training, and retail trade exhibit a markedly higher likelihood of using health insurance compared to those in other fields, possibly due to stable income or job-related healthcare requirements. Furthermore, as patients transition from low-income to middle-income status, the probability of health insurance utilization rises, suggesting that modest income improvements enhance access to insured services. Drawing on these insights, the study proposes targeted recommendations to bolster patients’ engagement with health insurance for medical examination and treatment in hospital contexts, aiming to address barriers and optimize policy effectiveness.

Tourist Attitudes, Satisfaction, and Advocacy in Local Food Tourism: Examining Gender’s Moderating Role

2025-08-19T10:42:29+07:00

Given the increasing significance of food experiences in contemporary tourist destinations, this research examines the relationships among subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, health beliefs, attitude formation, tourist satisfaction, and advocacy behavior in the context of local food tourism. Using data collected from 300 Thai tourists in Phuket, structural equation modeling reveals a significant relationship among perceived behavioral control, health beliefs, and the formation of attitudes toward local food. Tourist satisfaction predicts advocacy behavior in local food destinations, while gender influences the relationship between tourist satisfaction and advocacy behavior, with such a relationship being marginally stronger among male tourists. Meanwhile, subjective norms do not significantly affect tourists’ attitude formation, indicating that social influence mechanisms may vary across contexts. These findings emphasize the need to improve tourists’ perceived control over their local food selections and effectively convey the health benefits of these selections to consumers. This study contributes strategic insights for destination stakeholders and marketing practitioners striving to enhance tourists’ local food experiences and stimulate their endorsement within gastronomic tourism settings. This study also provides practical recommendations for designing comprehensive food information systems that can enhance the present understanding of the role of tourist behavior in local food tourism.