Thailand and The World Economy

Causal Effect from State Welfare Card on Poverty in Thailand

Weerawat Phattarasukkumjorn — 2025-09-01

This study aims to explore whether there is evidence supporting that the State Welfare Card causes the reduction of the poverty rate in Thailand. With data limitations, we rely on the 2019 household socio-economic survey to compare the consumption expenditure of those who received the card (treatment) and those who did not (control) using matching methods with propensity score and coarsened exact matching. The results show that the consumption expenditure of the treatment group is less than that of the control group, which aligns with previous research. We then perform matching among the poor and the non-poor separately and find that among the poor, differences in consumption expenditure between the treatment and control are tiny and mostly not statistically significant. We conclude that there is no sufficient evidence to support the claim that this program causally reduces the number of the poor in Thailand, probably due to the size of the provided benefits that is too small.

Does Military Expenditure Hinder Economic Growth? Evidence from Major Countries of the World

C.R. Bishnoi — 2025-09-01

This study endeavours to investigate the effect of military expenditure on economic growth in ten major countries of the world, which collectively contributed 75.2 per cent to global military expenditure in 2022. The period of study is 30 years, from 1992 to 2022, determined solely based on the availability of data. The selected major countries are the USA, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Germany, France, South Korea, and Japan. Employing a panel data model, this study estimated the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares Model, Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and Random Effects Model. After model estimation, model selection tests were applied, and it was found that the FEM is the appropriate one. However, when diagnostic tests were applied to the FEM, it revealed that the FEM suffers from the issues of cross-section dependence, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. Therefore, FGLS, first difference GMM, and system GMM were used for the robustness, and the results identify military expenditure and gross capital formation as the most significant factors influencing economic growth. Military expenditure shows a negative effect, while gross capital formation shows a positive effect on economic growth. The reliability of the GMM estimators is confirmed by the Sargan and Hansen J-tests, indicating that the instruments used are valid. Additionally, the absence of second-order autocorrelation further supports the robustness of the GMM results. These findings offer a nuanced understanding of the underlying dynamics and suggest that countries worldwide should adopt peacekeeping policies, curtail military expenditures, and allocate scarce resources used in military operations to alternative sectors, which can ensure high economic growth worldwide.

An Empirical Analysis of Volatility Spillovers in SAARC Stock Markets Using Multivariate GARCH Models

VAIRASIGAMANI P — 2025-09-01

Examining the persistence of volatility transmission over an extended timeframe, regardless of specific events, reveals significant importance, as it uncovers the inherent fundamental and structural drivers that give rise to volatility. However, previous research in South Asia is minimal and has primarily concentrated on periods of specific events or crises. Thus, it is crucial to understand South Asian equity markets' long-term interconnections beyond specific events that have not been addressed previously. To estimate the volatility transmission source, direction, and intensity among the select South Asian (India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan) equity markets, this study employed four-dimensional Multivariate GARCH models (BEKK, Simple Diagonal VECH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Constant Conditional Correlation) for examining the long-term interconnectedness, utilising daily data from January 2013 to March 2023. The findings reveal a relatively low degree of volatility transmission and more influence of spillovers within the same market than spillovers across different markets, indicating minimal inter-market connectedness in South Asian countries. As a result, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of market behaviour and volatility in South Asian equity markets, highlighting the favourable conditions for portfolio managers and foreign institutional and domestic investors to formulate diversification strategies.
Keywords: Stock Market Integration

The Impact of Origin and Safety Attributes on Vietnamese Consumers' Preferences for Organic Oranges: A Choice Experiment Approach

Nhat Bach Ho — 2025-09-01

The objective of the research is to examine the effects of product attributes on consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for organic oranges in the Mekong Delta and estimate the consumers’ WTP for each attribute. The study used survey data from 413 households in the Mekong Delta from March 2022 to July 2022. The choice experiment method (CE) was employed to analyze consumers’ willingness to pay. The results show that the factors that positively influence consumers’ level of WTP for organic oranges include organic material, the label of organic certification, product traceability, eco-label, and quality grade. In addition, the price has a negative influence on consumers’ WTP. Besides, consumers prefer imported fruits over domestically grown fruits. By leveraging the discrete choice theory and the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) model, the study developed a theoretical model about the effects of product attributes on consumers’ WTP for organic oranges in a transition economy. Additionally, our study also affirms that the SOR model serves as a useful structure to describe the process that leads to the final purchase decision. In the case of organic fruit buying behavior, the research focuses on how different stimuli, such as price and quality attributes, affect the activation and cognitive processes in the "black box" of consumers and ultimately lead to a particular product choice.

Gender Inequality across Time and Space in Myanmar

ohmar Khine — 2025-09-01

This study assesses the evolution of gender equality between 1973 and 2019 under military and non-military regimes in Myanmar. Gender inequality remains a significant barrier in Myanmar: women have participated in major political events since 1974 but have failed to gain equality in politics, health, education, or economic development. Past reports on this issue lacked quantitative analyses due to information inaccessibility. Also, these reports assumed a homogeneous population in Myanmar. In this study, the Gender Inequality Index was calculated empirically from various data sources at different periods and regions. Independent variables such as health, education, regional economic development, ethnicity, and urbanization were disaggregated at the state, division, and township levels. We controlled unobserved factors across time by using a time-fixed effect and across space by using a state-fixed effect in the specification. The results showed that gender inequality was 5 percent higher (p < 0.01) during the military regime than during the non-military periods. Also, it was higher in the northwestern borders than in other areas but much lower in the Yangon Division and parts of Mon State. These results provide a detailed view of the factors that influence gender inequality and may assist in planning social and economic programs at the granular level in Myanmar.

Unveiling the Pulse of the Market: Exploring Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Volatility in India

Neeru Gupta — 2025-09-01

Noise traders' propensity to emotionally react to market fluctuations, news, rumours, or other non-fundamental factors influences the irrational investor’s financial decisions. This ultimately impacts the stock market return and volatility. To measure the irrational traders’ sentiments, the study suggested the Investor Sentiment Index, which is reliable, consistent, and measures the effects on the stock market. The study incorporates daily data, as modelling volatility with high-frequency data is more accurate. The GARCH (1.1), GJR-GARCH (1.1), and E-GARCH (1.1) models were used in the study to determine how sentiment affected conditional volatility. The findings supported the presence of the leverage effect and volatility persistence. Hence, investor sentiments play a vital role in financial decisions and impact market volatility. The study supports the behavioural finance model asset pricing theory instead of traditional approaches like the capital asset pricing model, wherein the market decisions are based on fundamental information. The study will benefit policymakers and investors.

The Economic Impact of Financial Integration: A Case of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

Dingyi Qin — 2025-09-01

To explore the relationship between financial integration and economic growth in the 16 cities within China’s Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) from 2010 to 2019, this paper utilizes the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify the degree of financial agglomeration, the Wilson Model (WM) to compute the financial radiation radius, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to conduct spatial association analysis. Results show a positive U-shaped relationship and spatial association between financial integration and economic growth. At a lower level of financial integration, it appears to hinder the economic growth of both the local and neighbouring areas, while at a higher level, it can promote regional economic growth.

Roles of Geographical Heterogeneity on Income Distribution: Empirical Evidence from Thailand

Ronnakron Kitipacharadechatron — 2025-09-01

Income disparity has led to numerous significant issues, prompting the need for a deeper understanding of its causes and impacts. This paper examines the role of geographical heterogeneity in income distribution, providing empirical evidence to support development theory and inform policymakers in designing effective development policies. Secondary data from government surveys and publicly accessible sources, including satellite data, are utilized to conduct the analysis. The econometric model employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and spatial patterns are investigated using spatial autocorrelation techniques. The findings indicate substantial regional income disparities in Thailand, particularly in the northern and northeastern regions, where economic activity is considerably lower compared to the central region. Furthermore, the results highlight the significant effect of geographical heterogeneity on income distribution, with agricultural areas exhibiting lower income levels relative to regions concentrated in manufacturing and services. These findings underscore the importance of addressing geographical factors in development planning to reduce income inequality.