The The Estimation of PM2.5 Pollution Using Statistical Analysis and MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis for Health Risk Assessment in Northern Thailand
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Abstract
The landscape of northern Thailand consists of mountains, jungles, and valleys. Open burning, agricultural burning, and bushfires are the major sources of PM2.5 (particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) in the dry season that affect health via non-accidental mortality and morbidity. According to a report by the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), the MODIS satellite detected a fire hotspot of 9,859 points over the nine provinces of northern Thailand between January and May 2019. However, an estimation of PM2.5 concentration over northern Thailand was limited due to the paucity of data. In this study, the method was developed to estimate the PM2.5 concentration by applying a linear regression (MLR) of the PM2.5 monthly data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD), MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis, and meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and air pressure. In addition, the health risk was studied through relative risk (RR) using the risk function in SPSS to calculate the concentration-response coefficients (ꞵ values) between PM2.5 concentration and non-accidental mortality and morbidity; namely chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD). Finally, the concentration of PM2.5 in 2019, over the nine provinces of northern Thailand, was 30.68 μg/m3 while the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) was ±4.45. For the health risk, the results are shown that a 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 increase in northern Thailand was associated with an increase in the RR of mortality from COPD, stroke, and IHD about 20.9%, 24.3%, and 24.1%, respectively. In addition, increases in PM2.5 concentration were also associated with the RR of morbidity on COPD, stroke, and IHD by 15.3%, 5.8%, and 11.5% per 10 μg/m3, respectively. For the health burden, the results are shown that PM2.5 contributed to mortality from COPD, stroke, and IHD accounting for 687, 1,818, and 1,095 cases, respectively. Moreover, that PM2.5 caused 9,529, 1,080, and 3,916 cases of morbidity in COPD, stroke, and IHD, respectively. Thus, a decrease of PM2.5 concentration in northern Thailand by 10 μg/m3 could avoid 3,600 mortality and 14,525 morbidity cases.
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References
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