River Runoff under Climate Change Using Dynamic Basin Parameters in Lam Dom Yai River Basin, Thailand
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Abstract
This study aims to study effects of climate change (CC) and land use change (LUC) on future river flows of Lam Dom Yai (LDY) basin covering 5,000 km2 located in the northeast of Thailand. The study developed a climate hydrologic model (SWAT model) utilizing basin’s key spatiotemporal parameters as dynamic parameters comparable to utilizing constant or static parameters. The GIS-based ARC –SWAT model was developed and applied using 78 years of future climatic data from MRI-GCM which are statistically downscaled with observed data. Additionally CA-Markov technique was adopted to simulate temporal and spatial pattern of land use in periodically as the model input taken into account LUC. Results of the study indicated model reliability of both dynamic and static parameters. Dynamic parameters computed better model performance for daily, monthly and annual flow simulation basis than those of applying static parameters, the model with dynamic parameters is consequently recommended. For the case study of LDY basin in the future with the selected CC scenario RCP 4.5, the mean annual flows of LDY for the case of using dynamic and static parameters would be increased respectively 6.1 and 4.9 percent more than the past mean annual flow. Additionally, the future mean monthly flows and extreme daily flows would be significantly increased in September and October, and decreased in February and March respectively. Furthermore, high flows would be deferred from September to October.
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