Appropriate Forecasting Techniques Analysis for Number of Important Tourists Visiting Bangkok Forecasting Error Reduction After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The objectives of this research are to analyze and conduct demand forecasting by using forecasting techniques in the Bangkok area. The study included conducting the experiments and determining the appropriate forecasting techniques for the number of tourists forecast in each of the top ten countries, which were the Thai tourists and tourists from the People's Republic of China, Japan, South Korea, India, UK, USA, Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia who come to travel and stay in Bangkok. The conducted demand forecasting included accommodation forecasting. In addition, medical and wellness tourism were additional study findings. Supply plan for tourist accommodation was proposed. Time series analysis methods including moving average, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, and Winters’ method were used in the experiments for forecasting the number of tourists traveling and staying in Bangkok. According to the ANOVA, the forecasting method had a significant effect on MAPE and MAD. From the experimental results, it was found that the most suitable forecasting method was the Winters’ method, with a seasonal length of 12 months. The focus group was conducted for the number of tourists forecasting verification and validation. For supply plan analysis, tourist accommodation optimistic demand (demand under normal situation) was higher than the tourist accommodation capacity by 47.86%. Additionally, tourist accommodation pessimistic demand (demand under new normal situation) was higher than the tourist accommodation capacity during the high season of December and January by 10.12%. For medical and wellness tourism, Thai government should formulate policies to drive the successful healthcare tourism. The promotion projects of medical and wellness tourism by increasing the supply of medical and wellness tourism, supporting the needs of various groups of tourists, and developing innovative medical research and new technologies should be conducted. These projects could increase the potential of Thailand medical and wellness tourism. Thailand's medical and wellness tourism yields high revenue at 1,200,000 million baht per year and is growing among the fastest in the world with an average growth of 13% per year. Moreover, the COVID-19 vaccination is an important strategy for the countries’ main target group of tourists to minimize deaths, severe disease, curtail the health system impact, and fully resume socio-economic and tourism activity.