Provincial Economies and Loss from Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Thailand

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between provincial economic development and road traffic accident outcomes in Thailand from 2010 to 2020. Using a panel dataset compiled from official sources—including the Center for Road Safety, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)—the research explores whether accident rates, injuries, and fatalities follow nonlinear patterns with respect to gross provincial product (GPP) per capita. The findings reveal that both accident and injury rates follow an inverted U-shaped curve, peaking at mid-income levels before declining, while fatality rates demonstrate a U-shaped pattern—rising again in high-income provinces. These results highlight the complex interplay between economic growth and road safety, underscoring the need for region-specific and income-sensitive traffic policy interventions. The study employs instrumental variable regression to validate the observed trends, contributing new evidence to the literature on development and transport safety. The study recommends targeted government subsidies: increased support for high-risk provinces with heavy traffic flows, and incentive-based funding for provinces with low fatality rates. These dual strategies promote both risk prevention and sustained safety performance across diverse provincial contexts.