Russian Foreign Policy during the 4th term of President Vladimir Putin from 2018 to 2020
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The aim of this article is to study the fundamentality of Russian foreign policy over the Asia Pacific region during the fourth term of Vladimir Putin Presidency, from 2018 –2020. Russia was under pressure from both internal and international politics. Due to the fact that international situations are changing dynamics, so Russia's ties with the West was beginning to deteriorate. China and the Asia-Pacific region, meanwhile, have been on the rise in global politics. The key question is how Russia will carry out its foreign policy. According to the study, Russia has pursued a multi-vector foreign policy, focusing on non-western states including “Greater Eurasia”. This is by turning to strengthen cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region. The strategy consists of five issues as follows: 1) pursuing a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China"; 2) enhancing strategic flexibility through closer relations with other Asian powers including Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and other ASEAN states; 3) positioning Russia as an active player in regional security; 4) promoting Russia to be a major economic contributor in the region and; 5) acting as a good citizen of the region and the international political arena. The success of Russia's 'turn to the east' policy depends on how to genuinely recognize and deal with the Asia-Pacific region as a top priority of Russian foreign policy.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
- เนื้อหาและข้อมูลที่ลงตีพิมพ์ในวารสารรัฐศาสตร์และรัฐประศาสนศาสตร์ถือเป็นข้อคิดเห็นและความรับผิดชอบของผู้เขียนบทความโดยตรง ซึ่งกองบรรณาธิการวารสารรัฐศาสตร์และรัฐประศาสนศาสตร์ ไม่จำเป็นต้องเห็นด้วย หรือร่วมรับผิดชอบใดๆ
- บทความและข้อมูล ที่ได้รับการตีพิมพ์ในวารสารรัฐศาสตร์และรัฐประศาสนศาสตร์ ถือเป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของวารสาร หากบุคคลหรือหน่วยงานใดต้องการนำข้อมูลไปใช้ประโยชน์ในทางวิชาการ ขอให้อ้างอิงแหล่งที่มาด้วย
References
กติมา พ่วงชิงงาม. (2562). The Greater Eurasia ความคิดริเริ่มแถบเศรษฐกิจและเส้นทางและสหภาพเศรษฐกิจยูเรเชีย: การดำเนินนโยบายของไทยและผลประโยชน์ที่จะได้รับ. วารสารศิลปศาสตร์, 19(2), 156-181.
กรณัฏฐ์ โชติช่วง. (2556). รัสเซียและองค์การการค้าโลก:ปัจจัยที่ส่งผลต่อการเข้าเป็นสมาชิกองค์การการค้าโลกของรัสเซีย (วิทยานิพนธ์รัฐศาสตรมหาบัณฑิต), จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย.
แก้วตา ปานมงคล. (2561). อาหรับสปริง ถึง ‘วิกฤตซีเรีย’ สู่ความหวาดหวั่น ‘สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 3’ ? สืบค้นเมื่อ 14 ตุลาคม 2563, จาก https://news.mthai.com/webmaster-talk/news-focus/634180.html
จิราวรรณ นุชสวาท. (2553). การวิเคราะห์ลัทธิบูชาตัวบุคคลในบริบทการเมืองการปกครอง: กรณีศึกษา วลาดิมีร์ ปูติน (ค.ศ. 2000 - 2008) (ภาคนิพนธ์ศิลปศาสตรบัณฑิต), มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์.
ชาญวิทย์ เอี่ยมอุดม. (2560). เบื้องหลังสงครามในซีเรีย การเข้ามาของสหรัฐ-รัสเซีย และปมขัดแย้งที่ซ่อนเร้น. สืบค้นเมื่อ 14 ตุลาคม 2563, จาก https://www.ryt9.com/s/iq41/2631691
ธัญสุดา เทพกุล. (2561). การมุ่งสู่ตะวันออกของรัสเซียและความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างรัสเซียกับจีน. วารสารรัฐศาสตร์และรัฐประศาสนศาสตร์, 9(1), 112-139.
สนธิ นวกุล, และสุภานี นวกุล. (2563). มหายุทธศาสตร์ของรัสเซีย. วารสารการเมือง การบริหาร และกฎหมาย, 12(1), 511-532.
อาทิตย์ ทองอินทร์. (2561). ซีเรีย สงครามกลางเมืองในมือรัสเซีย. สืบค้นเมื่อ 14 ตุลาคม 2563, จาก https://waymagazine.org/russiasyria/
Bernier, P. (2018). Yevgeny Primakov’s Operational Code and Russian Foreign Policy (Master’s Thesis). University of Tampere.
Bidder, B. (2019). The Case of Sergei Magnitsky: Questions Cloud Story Behind U.S. Sanctions. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-case-of-sergei-magnitsky-anti-corruption-champion-or-corrupt-anti-hero-a-1297796.html
Blank, S., & Levitzky, E. (2015). Geostrategic Aims of the Russian Arms Trade in East Asia and the Middle East. Defence Studies, 15(1), 63-80.
Borshchevskaya, A. (2020). The Role of the Military in Russian Politics and Foreign Policy Over the Past 20 Years. Orbis, 64(3), 434-446.
Busygina, I., & Filippov, M. (2021). Trade-offs and Inconsistencies of the Russian Foreign Policy: The Case of Eurasia. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 12(1), 46-56.
CEIC Data. (2021). Russia Household Income per Capita. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/annual-household-income-per-capita
Chung, J. (2018). Trans-Korea Gas Pipeline Project Reappears, But Challenges Remain. Retrieved November 29, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-gas-russia-expl/trans-korea-gas-pipeline-project-reappears-but-challenges-remain-idUSKBN1JP0UN
Collett-White, M., & Popeski, R. (2014). More Than 90% Of Crimean Voters Want to Join Russia. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.businessinsider.com/crimean-referendum-results-2014-3
Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives. (2018). The National Defense Strategy and the Nuclear Posture Review. H.AS.C. No.115-67. Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Publishing Office.
Cosgrove, J. (2020). The Russian Invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, 2014 - 2015: A Post-Cold War Nuclear Crisis Case Study. N.P.: Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
Dave, A. (2018). India and Russia: Ties that Bind. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://rusi.org/explore-our-esearch/publications/commentary/india-and-russia-ties-bind
Dave, B. (2016). Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia. Singapore: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
DeKraker, A., Hinen, C., Iatauro, B., & Barense, P. B. (2021). The Russo-Georgian War: Russian Influence. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/russo-georgian-war-russian-influence
Donaldson, R. H. (2000). Boris Yeltsin's Foreign Policy Legacy. Tulsa Journal of Comparative and International Law, 7(2), 285-326.
Filipov, D. (2019). Yuri Luzhkov, Transformative Moscow Mayor, Dies At 83. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/yuri-luzhkov-transformative-moscow-mayor-dies-at-83/2019/12/10/158ed11c-1b3f-11ea-8d58-5ac3600967a1_story.html
Gabuev, A. (2016). Friends with Benefits? Russian-Chinese Relations After the Ukraine Crisis. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://carnegiemoscow.org/2016/06/29/friends-with-benefits-russian-chinese-relations-after-ukraine-crisis-pub-63953
Gady, F. (2015). What to Expect from Russia’s Pacific Fleet in 2015: Will Russia’s Ambitious Naval Plans in the Pacific Bear Fruit this Year? Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/what-to-expect-from-russias-pacific-fleet-in-2015/
Gorenburg, D. (2020). An Emerging Strategic Partnership: Trends in Russia-China Military Cooperation. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.marshallcenter.org/sites/default/files/files/2020-04/SecurityInsights_54.pdf
de Haas, M. (2011). Military Reform in Russia: Success or Failure? Security Index: A Russian Journal on International Security, 17(1), 95-102.
Hans, M. K., & Matt, K. (2020). Russian Nuclear Forces, 2020. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 76(2), 102-117.
Heintz, J. (2018). Tens of Thousands of Russians Protest Retirement Age Hikes. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://apnews.com/article/07039ed986a54d43940 144282f0c431a
Henderson, J. (2018). ‘Russia’s Gas Pivot to Asia: Another False Dawn or Ready for Lift Off?’ Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Russias-gas-pivot-to-Asia-Insight-40.pdf
Hill, F. (2002). Russia: The 21st Century’s Energy Superpower? Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/russia-the-21st-centurys-energy-superpower/
Humpert, M. (2019). China Continues to Invest in Arctic Natural Resources as two Chinese National Oil Companies Secure a 20 Percent Stake in Russia’s Massive Arctic LNG 2 Project. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/china-acquires-20-percent-stake-novateks-latest-arctic-lng-project
Ivanov, I. (2018). Russia’s Post-Election Foreign Policy: New Challenges, New Horizons. Retrieved October 14, 2020, from https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/russias-post-election-foreign-policy-new-challenges-new-horizons/
Jannace, W., & Tiffany, P. (2019). A New World Order: The Rule of Law, or the Law of Rulers? Fordham International Law Journal, 42(5). Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/ilj/vol42/iss5/2
Kahraman, A. I. (2019). Belt and Road Initiative: The Eurasian Cold War? Caucasus International, 8(2), 43-61.
Kapoor, N. (2020). Russia’s Relations in Southeast Asia Since 2014: Continuity and Change, ORF Occasional Paper No. 267, August 2020, Observer Research Foundation. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from www.orfonline.org/research/russias-relations-in-southeast-asia-since-2014-continuity-and-change/
Katz, M. N. (2012). Russia and the Arab Spring. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-and-arab-spring
Kazantse, A., Medvedeva S., & Safranchuk I. (2021). Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 12(1), 57-71.
Korotov, K., Shekshnia, S., Florent-Treacy, E., & Vries, M.F.R.K. (2016). Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Yukos Chelovek s Rublyom (Man with a Rouble). Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307545106_Mikhail_Khodorkovskym_and_Yukos_Chelovek_s_Rublyom_Man_with_a_Rouble/link/57c7dfc408aec24de042bb79/download
Kuimova, A. (2019). Russia's Arms Exports to the MENA Region: Trends and Drivers. London: Routledge.
Liik, K. (2018). And Now What? Russian Foreign Policy in Putin’s Fourth Term. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_and_now_what_russian_foreign_policy_in_putins_fourth_term/
Lo, B. (2018). Going Legit? The Foreign Policy of Vladimir Putin. Retrieved August, 27, 2021, from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/going-legit-foreign-policy-vladimir–putin
Lo, B. (2019). Once More with Feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/once-more-feeling-russia-and-asia-pacific
Luhn, A., & Macalister, T. (2018). ‘Russia Signs 30-year Deal Worth $400bn to Deliver Gas to China.’ The Guardian. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/21/russia-30-year-400bn-gas-deal-china
Makarychev, A. (2017). Russia’s Engagement with Asia Pacific: International Socialization, Multipolarity and Regionalism. Rising Powers Quarterly, 1(1), 105-119.
Mankoff, J. (2009). Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publisher.Ing.
McFaul, M. (2020). Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy. International Security, 45(2), 95-139.
Mearsheimer, J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W.Norton.
Mikail, E. H., & Yilmazchoban, M. (2018). Vladimir Putin Era Russian Foreign Policy. Open Journal of Political Science, 8(4), 339-352.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation. (2016). Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation Approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30, 2016. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents//asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248
Mitchell, L. A. (2012). The Color Revolutions. Philadelphia: Penn Press.
NATO. (2021). Relations with Russia. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_50090.htm
Oldberg, I. (2007). Russia’s Great Power Ambitions and Policy Under Putin. In Kanet, R. E. (Eds.). Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Olivier, G., & Suchkov, D. (2015). Russia is Back in Africa. Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 37(2), 146-167.
Omelicheva, M. Y. (2013). Russian Foreign Policy: A Quest for Great Power Status in a Multipolar World. In Beasley, R. K., Kaarbo, J., Lantis, J. S., & Snarr, M. T. (Eds.). Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior (pp. 94-117). Los Angeles: SAGE Publications, Inc.
OSW Team. (2018). Putin for the Fourth Time: The State of and Prospects for Russia (2018–2024). Warsaw: Centre for Eastern Studies.
ÖzsaĞlam, M. T. (2020). Revival of Geopolitics: Russian Involvement in Eastern Mediterranean (2009-2019). Utopia y Praxis Latinoamericana. Extra 10, 25, 522-532.
Park J., Kim, S. H., Kang, B., Minakir, P. A., Isaev, A. G., Bardal, A. B., & Suslov, D. V. (2020). Development of the Russian Far East in 20 Years of the Putin Era: Seeking New Directions for Deepening Cooperation between Korea and Russia. World Economy Brief, 10(35), 1-4.
Peterseim, L. (2021). Yevgeny Primakov: Prime Minister of Russia. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.britannica.com/biography/Yevgeny-Primakov
Pinchuk, D. (2013). Rosneft to Double Oil Flows to China in $270 Billion Deal. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rosneft-china-idUSB RE95K08820130621
Putin, V. (1999). Russia at the Turn of the Millennium. Retrieved August 30, 2020, from https://pages.uoregon.edu/kimball/Putin.htm
Putin, V. (2018). Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
Putin, V. (2019). Statement by the President of Russia on the Unilateral Withdrawal of the United States from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61271
Qi, R. (2021). Economic Forum Opens in Russia's Far East. Retrieved November 29, 2021, from https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202109/02/WS6130829ca310efa 1bd66cee0.html
Rácz, A., & Nič, M. (2021). Russian Foreign Policy in 2020: Strengthening Multi-Vectorialism. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/ Russian-foreign-policy-2020
Rajagopalan, R. P. (2021). Russia Tests Hypersonic Zircon Missile. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/russia-tests-hypersonic-zircon-missile/
Rezvani, B. (2020). Russian Foreign Policy and Geopolitics in the Post-Soviet Space and the Middle East: Tajikistan, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. Middle Eastern Studies, 56(6), 878-899.
Robertson, G. (2013). Protesting Putinism: The Election Protests of 2011-12 in Broader Perspective. Problems of Post-Communism, 60(2), 11–23.
Roth, A. (2021). The Problem is Putin': Protesters Throng Russia's Streets to Support Jailed Navalny. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/the-problem-is-putin-protesters-throng-the-streets-to-support-navalny
Rumer, E., Sokolsky R., & Vladicic, A. (2020). Russia in the Asia-Pacific: Less Than Meets the Eye. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/03/Russia-in-asia-pacific-less-than-meets-eye-pub-82614
Russell, M. (2021). Russia's Armed Forces: Defence Capabilities and Policy. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/689370/ EPRS_BRI(2021)689370_EN.pdf
Secrieru, S. (2018). The Real and Hidden Costs of Russia’s Foreign Policy. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief%202%20Russian%20Foreign%20Policy_0.pdf
Secrieru, S., & Shkliarov, V. (2018). Putin’s Fourth Term: The Twilight Begins? Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/putin%E2%80%99s-fourth-term-%E2%%93-twilight-begins
Sergunin, A. (2013). The EU’s Eastern Partnership and Russia - A Platform for Confrontation or Cooperation? The Korean Journal of Slavic Studies, 29(3), 1-29.
Stent, A. (2020). Why Are US-Russia Relations So Challenging? Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/why-are-us-russia-relations-so-challenging/
Stepanova, E. (2016). Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s. Retrieved January 14, 2021, from https://www.iai.it/sites/default/ files/iaip2016.pdf
Storey, I. (2021). Russia’s Defence Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: A Tenuous Lead in Arms Sales but Lagging in Other Areas. N.P.: ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute Perspective.
Streltsov. D., Kireeva. A., & Dyachkov, I. (2018). Russia’s View on the International Security in Northeast Asia. The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 30(1), 115-134.
Stronski, P., & Ng, N. (2018). Cooperation and Competition: Russia and China in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic. Washington D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Sussex, M. (2015a). Russia’s Asian Rebalance. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/russia-s-asian-rebalance
Sussex, M. (2015b). Russia's Next Big Strategic Move (And It Has Nothing to Do with Ukraine): Forget the Ukraine Crisis. The Russians Are Coming to Asia. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/ the-buzz/russias-next-big-strategic-move-it-has-nothing-do-ukraine-13081
Talbot, V., & Lovotti, C. (Eds.). (2019). The Role of Russia in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Strategy or Opportunism? Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.ispionline.it/sites/default/ files/pubblicazioni/joint-policy-study_12_the-role-of-russia-in-the-mena-region.pdf
Traynor, I. (2002). General Alexander Lebed: Russian General Who Applied Military Toughness to Politics. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from www.theguardian.com/news/2002/apr/29/guardianobituaries.russia
Trenin, D. (2019). 20 Years of Vladimir Putin: How Russian Foreign Policy Has Changed. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://carnegiemoscow.org/2019/08/28/20-years-of-vladimir-putin-how-russian-foreign-policy-has-changed-pub-79742
Tsukamoto, T. (2020). Russia’s Claim to Sovereignty Over the Four Northern Islands. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/research/ a00021r.html
U.S. Department of States. (2021). New START Treaty. Retrieved August 27, 2021, from https://www.state.gov/new-start/
Vereshchahin, V. (2018). The 2018 Presidential Election in Russia. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325285685_The_2018_PresidentialElection_in_Russia/link/5b03e8a70f7e9be94bdb2112/download
Vereykina, Y. (2021). As it Happened: Navalny Returns to Russia: Chief Kremlin Critic Alexei Navalny Detained on His Return to Russia from Germany. Retrieved November 27, 2021, from https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/17/as-it-happened-navalny-returns-to-russia-a72635
West, J. (2018). Asian Century... on a Knife-Edge: A 360 Degree Analysis of Asia’s Recent Economic Development. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan.