Long-term Carbon Emissions Prediction from the Impact of Electricity Mix and Climate Change Using Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment
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Abstract
Given the challenges posed by climate change, it is imperative to establish targets for the emissions reduction in construction sector. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for evaluating environmental impacts. However, the conventional (static) LCA assumes constant values through life cycles, leading to discrepancies for buildings with long service lives. This leads to the concept of dynamic life cycle assessment, which considers time-varying factors.
This study compares greenhouse gas emissions from static and dynamic LCA using single-detached houses in Bangkok as a case study. This comparison considers two time-varying factors: future electricity mix and future weather data. Additionally, the study evaluates the impact of greenhouse gas mitigation measures, specifically the thermal insulation performance of building envelopes.
Using EnergyPlus for an energy simulation, the static LCA estimated emissions at 1,741 kgCO2e/m². In contrast, dynamic LCA, which accounts for future scenarios, projected 1,293 kgCO2e/m² (a 25.67% reduction) under a business-as-usual scenario and 836 kgCO2e/m² (a 51.99% reduction) under Thailand’s carbon neutrality policies. This results emphasize the role of effective policies in lowering emissions. Furthermore, operational carbon emissions, which previously accounted for up to 80.1% in static assessments, was found to decrease to 58.5%–73.2% in dynamic assessments. Additionally, operational carbon emissions, previously up to 80.1% in static assessments, decreased to 58.5%–73.2% in dynamic assessments, influencing optimal building envelope design. Notably, optimal thickness of insulation was lower in dynamic assessments, with rockwool thickness reduced from 150 mm to 100 mm and fiberglass from 150 mm to 75 mm under policies scenarios.
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