Debt of Agencies under State Supervision in Thailand: Risk and Uncertainty of Contingent Liabilities
Keywords:
Public Debt, Fiscal Sustainability, Self-Organized CriticalityAbstract
This study attempts for the first time to compile list of agencies under state supervision in Thailand as well as their outstanding debts in order to provide policy makers more complete picture of public debt. It finds that there are eighty-six agencies with total debts of 3.846 trillion baht as of 2011, accounting for 46.37 per cent of total public debt. The analysis of the effects of debts of agencies under state supervision on fiscal sustainability framework reveals that adding new information on debts of those agencies causes public debt to GDP indicator to be violated, in addition to balanced budget within 2005 and capital expenditure to total budget expenditure, leaving only debt service to total budget expenditure that still remains within the target. This study suggests that government should make an effort to balance budget and lower level of public debt so that they are in line with the targets since prolong budget deficit and rising public debt could cause serious trouble for the government in the future.
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