Role of Agricultural Sector in Thailand’s Aggregate Business Cycle Volatility
Keywords:
Agricultural Sector Volatility, Real Business Cycle ModelAbstract
Agriculture’s share of Thailand’s economic growth, as measured by its share of total GDP, has declined over time. Agricultural output throughout this period has shown greater fluctuations over the course of the business cycle than has non-agricultural output. This paper explores the reasons for this volatility using a two-sector real business cycle model of the economy, where a representative consumer consumes both agricultural and non agricultural goods. After calibrations and simulations are performed, the replicated economy roughly conforms to observational data in important dimensions. The model implies that the agricultural business cycle fluctuations are driven by shocks to technologies.
References
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2. จิรวัฒน์ เจริญสถาพรกุล. (2542). วัฎจักรธุรกิจที่แท้จริงระหว่างประเทศ: กรณีศึกษาประเทศไทยและประเทศใหญ่ (อเมริกา, ญี่ปุ่น). เศรษฐศาสตร์มหาบัณฑิต, มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์.
3. Benhabib, J., R. Rogerson, and R. Wright. (1991). “Homework in Macroeconomics:Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations” Journal of Political Economy, 99 pp: 1166-1187.
4. Chaleampong Kongcharoen. (2003). Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycles model: a case study of Thailand. Master of Art Thesis in Economics, Thammasat University.
5. Choe, Y. C. (1989). A Survey of Macroeconomics and Agriculture. Master’s Thesis, Faculty of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State university.
6. Da Rocha, J.M. and D.Restuccia. (2006). “The role of agriculture in aggregate business cycles fluctuation”. Review of Economic Dynamics. 9: pp. 455–482.
7. _________. (2002). Aggregate Employment Fluctuations and Agricultural Share. Manuscript, University of Toronto.
8. Hansen, L.P., and Sargent T.J. (1997). Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economics. Manuscript.
9. Pawin Siriprapanukul. (2000). Effects of monetary policies in RBC model with banking sector. Master of Art Thesis in Economics, Thammasat University.
10. Tanapong Potipiti. (1999). The dynamic responses to shocks: a comparison of a closed and an open economy. Master of Art Thesis in Economics, Thammasat University.
11. Thitipong Jurapornsiridee. (1995). Real Business Cycle: The Case of Thailand. Master of Art Thesis in Economics, Thammasat University.
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Published
2018-07-31
How to Cite
เจริญสถาพรกุล จ. (2018). Role of Agricultural Sector in Thailand’s Aggregate Business Cycle Volatility. Thailand and The World Economy, 28(1), 84–121. Retrieved from https://so05.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/TER/article/view/137344
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Research Article
