บทบาทของภาคเกษตรในความผันผวนของเศรษฐกิจไทย

จิรวัฒน์ เจริญสถาพรกุล

Authors

จิรวัฒน์ เจริญสถาพรกุล Faculty of Economics, Srinakharinwirot University

Keywords:

Agricultural Sector Volatility, Real Business Cycle Model

Abstract

Agriculture’s share of Thailand’s economic growth, as measured by its share of total GDP, has declined over time. Agricultural output throughout this period has shown greater fluctuations over the course of the business cycle than has non-agricultural output. This paper explores the reasons for this volatility using a two-sector real business cycle model of the economy, where a representative consumer consumes both agricultural and non agricultural goods. After calibrations and simulations are performed, the replicated economy roughly conforms to observational data in important dimensions. The model implies that the agricultural business cycle fluctuations are driven by shocks to technologies.

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