Macroeconomic and Financial Management in an Uncertain World: What Can We Learn from Complexity Science?
Keywords:
Macroeconomics, Finance, Complexity ScienceAbstract
This paper discusses serious drawbacks of existing knowledge in macroeconomics and finance in explaining and predicting economic and financial phenomena. Complexity science is proposed as an alternative approach to be used in order to better understand how economy and financial market work. This paper argues that understanding characteristics of complex system could greatly benefit financial analysts, financial regulators, as well as macroeconomic policy makers.
References
1. Ariely, D. (2009). Predictability Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions. New York: HarperCollins.
2. Arthur, W. B. (1994). Bounded Rationality and Inductive Behavior (The El Farol Problem). American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association), 84 (2), pp. 406-411.
3. Arthur, W. B. (2013). Complexity Economics: A Different Framework for Economic Thought. INET Research Note #033. Institute for New Economic Thinking. Accessed 2 October 2013, from http://ineteconomics.org/research_note/complexity-economics-different-framework-economic-thought.
4. Arthur, W. B. (2015). Complexity and the Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.
5. Axelrod, R. (1997). Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences: Obtaining, Analyzing, and Sharing Results of Computer Models, Complexity, 3, 2, pp. 16-22.
6. Bak, P. (1996). How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. New York: Copernicus.
7. Ball, P. (2005). Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. London: Arrow Books.
8. Ball, P. (2012). Why Society is a Complex Matter: Meeting Twenty-first Century Challenges with a New Kind of Science. Berlin: Springer.
9. Bardsley, N., Cubitt, R., Loomes, G., Moffatt, P., Starmer, C., and Sugden, R. (2010). Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
10. Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E., and Xing, Y. (2009). Risk, Uncertainty, and Asset Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 91, pp. 59-82.
11. Beinhocker, E. D. (2007). The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. London: Random House Business Books.
12. Bernanke, B. S. (2004). The Great Moderation. Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, 20 February 2004 Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve Board., Accessed 20 October 2015, from http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOC S/SPEECHES/2004/20040220/default.htm
13. Bonomo, M., Garcia, R., Meddahi, N., and Tédongap, R. (2010). Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long-Run Volatility, Risk and Asset Prices. TSE Working Paper No. 10-187. Toulouse School of Economics., Accessed 18 August 2015, from https://www.tse-fr.eu/publications/generalized-disappointment-aversion-long-run-volati lity-risk-and-asset-prices
14. Buchanan, M. (2013). Forecast: What Physics, Meteorology and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us about Economics. London: Bloomsbury.
15. Buiter, W. H. (2009). The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most ‘State of the Art’ Academic Monetary Economics. The Financial Times, 3 March, Accessed 16 December 2013, from http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/the-unfortunate-uselessness-of-most-state-of-the-art-academic-monetary-economics/#
16. Caballero, R. J. (2010). Macroeconomic after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24 (4), pp. 85-102.
17. Casti, J. L. (2010). Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers. New York: Copernicus Books.
18. Challet, D. and Zhang, Y-C. (1997). Emergence of Cooperation and Organization in an Evolutionary Game. Physica A., 246, pp. 407-18.
19. Colander, D., Howitt, P., Kirman, A., Leijonhufvud, A. and Mehrling, P. (2008). Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics. American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twentieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association), 98 (2), pp. 236-240.
20. Davig, T. and Foerster, A. (2014). Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs. Research Working Papers #14-04. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Accessed 9 April 2014, from http://www.kc.frb.org/publications/research/rwp/index.cfm
21. Drechsler, I. and Yaron, A. (2009). What’s Vol Got to Do with It. Accessed 18 August 2015, from http://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/itamar-drechsler
22. Düppe, T. (2010). Debreu’s Apologies for Mathematical Economics After 1983. Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, 3, 1, pp. 1-32.
23. Durongkaveroj, W. (2014). Framework and Application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Accesses 5 November 2015, from http://wannaphong. blogspot.com/2014/11/framework-and-application-of-computable.html
24. Durrani, M. (2011). Can Biology Explain the Global Credit Crunch?. BBC News, 17 February. Accessed 6 January 2014, from http://www.bbc.com/news/business-12479998
25. Farmer, D. J. and Geanakoplos, J. (2009). The Virtues and Vices of Equilibrium and the Future of Financial Economics. Complexity, 14, 3, pp. 11-38.
26. Farmer, D. J. (2011). Macroeconomics from the Bottom up. 30 Ways to Be An Economist. Institute for New Economic Thinking. Accessed 30 August 2012, from http://ineteconomics.org/video/30-ways-be-economist/doyne-farmer-macroeconomics-bottom
27. Fernandez, P. (2015). CAPM: An Absurd Model. Social Science Research Network. Accessed 24 October 2015, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract _id=2505597
28. Fiske, S. T. (2015). Rational Actor Models: The Competence Corollary. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 329-330.
29. Flake, G. W. (1998). The Computational Beauty of Nature: Computer Explorations of Fractals, Chaos, Complex Systems, and Adaptation. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
30. Foerster, A., Rubio-Ramirez, J., Waggoner, D. and Zha, T. (2013). Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models. Research Working Papers #13-01. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Accessed 8 March 2013, from http://kansascityfed.org/ publications/research/rwp/rwp-2013.cfm
31. Foxley, J. (2013). Diversifying International Reserves: A Case for Going LatAm. The 6th Annual National Asset-Liability Management Conference, 23-24 July 2013 Singapore.
32. Foxton, T. J., Köhler, J., Michie, J., and Oughton, C. (2013). Towards a New Complexity Economics for Sustainability. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37, 1, pp. 187-208. doi: 10.1093/cje/bes057
33. Gershenson, C. and Heylighen, F. (2004). How Can We Think the Complex?. Accessed 14 March 2014, from http://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0402023
34. Goodhart, C., Tsomocos, D., and Shubik, M. (2013). Macro-Modelling, Default and Money. LSE Financial Markets Group Special Paper Series #224. Department of Finance. London School of Economics & Political Science. Accessed 20 March 2014, from http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/specialPapers/2013.aspx
35. Haidt, J. D. (2015). The Pursuit of Parsimony. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 493-495.
36. Haldane, A. G. and May, R. M. (2011). Systemic Risk in Banking Ecosystems. Nature, 469, pp. 351-355.
37. Haldane, A. G. and Nelson, B. (2012). Tails of the Unexpected. Speeches and Articles. Bank of England. Accessed 21 February 2013, from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ publications/Pages/speeches/2012/582.aspx .
38. Helbing, D. (2009). Systemic Risk in Society and Economics. SFI Working Paper. Accessed 14 March 2014, from: http://www.santafe.edu/research/working-papers/abstract/9596e 5a57d1f9b7e8fcc289f118555ce/
39. Helbing, D., ed. (2012). Social Self-Organization: Agent-Based Simulations and Experiments to Study Emergent Social Behavior. New York: Springer.
40. Helbing, D. (2015). Thinking Ahead: Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society. New York: Springer.
41. Helbing, D. and Balietti, S. (2010). Fundamental and Real-World Challenges in Economics. Science and Culture, 76 (9/10), pp. 399-417.
42. Ho, H. (2011). Making Sense of the Meltdown: New Approaches to Portfolio Construction & Risk Management. The 4th National Asset-Liability Management Conference, 7-8 July 2011 Singapore.
43. Holland, J. H. (1996). Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. New York: Basic Books.
44. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1981). The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice. Science, New Series, 211 (4481), pp. 453-458.
45. Kirman, A. (2010). The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory. CESifo Economic Studies, 56 (4/2010), pp. 498-535. doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifq017
46. Knutson, B. (2015). Emotional Is Peripheral. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 420-422.
47. Krugman, P. (2009). How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?. The New York Times, 2 September. Accessed 19 March 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/ 06/magazine/06Economic-t.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print
48. Levi, M. (2015). Homo Economicus. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 321-324.
49. Lorenz, E. N. (1995). The Essence of Chaos. Seattle: University of Washington Press.
50. Mandelbrot, B. and Hudson, R. L. (2008). The (Mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence. London: Profile Books.
51. McFadden, D. L. (2013). The New Science of Pleasure. NBER Working Paper No. 18687. National Bureau of Economic Research. Accessed 8 May 2013, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w18687
52. McClure, S. M. (2011). Our Brains Know Why We Do What We Do. In: M. Brockman, ed. Future Science: Cutting-Edge Essays from the New Generation of Scientists. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 114-126.
53. Mitchell, M. (2009). Complexity: A Guide Tour. New York: Oxford University Press.
54. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Downing Street Guru. (2012). Radio. BBC Radio 4, 12 March. 20.30 hrs.
55. Ormerod, P. (2006). Why Most Things Fail…And How to Avoid It. London: Faber and Faber.
56. Ormerod, P. (2012). Positive Linking: How Networks Can Revolutionize the World. London: Faber and Faber.
57. Orrell, D. (2010). Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong. Ontario: John Wiley & Sons Canada.
58. Oxford Dictionaries. (n.d). Positive Feedback. Oxford Dictionaries. Accessed 5 November 2015, from http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/positive-feedback?q= positive+feedback
59. Pentland, A. P. (2015). The Rational Individual. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 317-320.
60. Pongsaparn, R. (2008). A Small Semi-structural Model for Thailand: Construction and Applications. MPC Knowledge. Bank of Thailand. Accessed 23 May 2014, from https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyKnowledge/Pages/MacroModel.aspx
61. Railsback, S. F. and Grimm, V. (2012). Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: A Practical Introduction. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
62. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
63. Santos, L. R. (2011). Too Err Is Primate. In: M. Brockman, ed. Future Science: Cutting-Edge Essays from the New Generation of Scientists. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 99-113.
64. Sbordone, A. M., Tambalotti, A., Rao, K., and Walsh, K. (2010). Policy Analysis Using DSGE Models: An Introduction. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 16, 2, pp. 23-43. Accessed 20 October 2015, from http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/10v16n2/1010sbor.html
65. Simon, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
66. Sironi, P. (2015). Modern Portfolio Management: From Markowitz to Probabilistic Scenario Optimization. London: Risk Books.
67. Sitthiyot, T. (2014). Measuring and Managing Risk within a Sovereign Framework: Time to Abandon Old Thinking. Finance and Fiscal Journal, 26, 81, pp. 72-76.
68. Slingerland, E. G. (2015). Scientific Morality. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 365-368.
69. Sornette, D. (2003). Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
70. Sutherland, R. (2014). This Thing for Which We Have No Name. Edge, 12 May. Accessed 14 May 2014, from http://edge.org/conversation/rory_sutherland-this-thing-for-which-we-have-no-name
71. Tanboon, S. (2008). The Bank of Thailand Structural Model for Policy Analysis. Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper DP/12/2008. Bank of Thailand. Accessed 14 March 2014, from http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/Understanding/Pages/MacroModel. aspx
72. Taleb, N. N. (2013). Hormesis Is Redundancy. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Explains Everything: Deep, Beautiful, and Elegant Theories of How the World Works. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 347-349.
73. Taleb, N. N. (2014). What We Learn from Firefighters: How Fat Are the Fat Tails?. In: J. Brockman, ed. What Should We Be Worried About?: Real Scenarios That Keep Scientists Up at Night. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 464-467.
74. Thaler, R. H. (1994). Quasi Rational Economics. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
75. Thaler, R. H. (2015). Don’t Discard Wrong Theories, Just Don’t Treat Them as True. In J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 325-328.
76. The Economist. (2009). The Other-Worldly Philosophers. The Economist, 18 July, p. 59.The Love of Money Episode 1: The Bank That Bust the World. (2009). TV. BBC2, 10 September. 21.00 hrs.
77. The World Bank (2015). World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. Accessed 27 June 2015, from http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2015
78. United Nations. (2013). World Economic and Social Survey: Sustainable Development Challenges. Accessed 9 November 2015, from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa /policy/wess/archive.shtml
79. von Hayek, F. A. (1974). The Pretense of Knowledge. Nobelprize. Accessed 17 November 2014, from http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/ hayek-lecture.html
80. Waldrop, M. M. (1992). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Simon & Schuster Paperbacks.
81. Whitelaw, R. F. (2000). Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach. Reviews of Financial Studies, 13, 3, pp. 521-547.
2. Arthur, W. B. (1994). Bounded Rationality and Inductive Behavior (The El Farol Problem). American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association), 84 (2), pp. 406-411.
3. Arthur, W. B. (2013). Complexity Economics: A Different Framework for Economic Thought. INET Research Note #033. Institute for New Economic Thinking. Accessed 2 October 2013, from http://ineteconomics.org/research_note/complexity-economics-different-framework-economic-thought.
4. Arthur, W. B. (2015). Complexity and the Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.
5. Axelrod, R. (1997). Advancing the Art of Simulation in the Social Sciences: Obtaining, Analyzing, and Sharing Results of Computer Models, Complexity, 3, 2, pp. 16-22.
6. Bak, P. (1996). How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. New York: Copernicus.
7. Ball, P. (2005). Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. London: Arrow Books.
8. Ball, P. (2012). Why Society is a Complex Matter: Meeting Twenty-first Century Challenges with a New Kind of Science. Berlin: Springer.
9. Bardsley, N., Cubitt, R., Loomes, G., Moffatt, P., Starmer, C., and Sugden, R. (2010). Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
10. Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E., and Xing, Y. (2009). Risk, Uncertainty, and Asset Prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 91, pp. 59-82.
11. Beinhocker, E. D. (2007). The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. London: Random House Business Books.
12. Bernanke, B. S. (2004). The Great Moderation. Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, 20 February 2004 Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve Board., Accessed 20 October 2015, from http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOC S/SPEECHES/2004/20040220/default.htm
13. Bonomo, M., Garcia, R., Meddahi, N., and Tédongap, R. (2010). Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long-Run Volatility, Risk and Asset Prices. TSE Working Paper No. 10-187. Toulouse School of Economics., Accessed 18 August 2015, from https://www.tse-fr.eu/publications/generalized-disappointment-aversion-long-run-volati lity-risk-and-asset-prices
14. Buchanan, M. (2013). Forecast: What Physics, Meteorology and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us about Economics. London: Bloomsbury.
15. Buiter, W. H. (2009). The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most ‘State of the Art’ Academic Monetary Economics. The Financial Times, 3 March, Accessed 16 December 2013, from http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/the-unfortunate-uselessness-of-most-state-of-the-art-academic-monetary-economics/#
16. Caballero, R. J. (2010). Macroeconomic after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24 (4), pp. 85-102.
17. Casti, J. L. (2010). Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers. New York: Copernicus Books.
18. Challet, D. and Zhang, Y-C. (1997). Emergence of Cooperation and Organization in an Evolutionary Game. Physica A., 246, pp. 407-18.
19. Colander, D., Howitt, P., Kirman, A., Leijonhufvud, A. and Mehrling, P. (2008). Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics. American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twentieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association), 98 (2), pp. 236-240.
20. Davig, T. and Foerster, A. (2014). Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs. Research Working Papers #14-04. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Accessed 9 April 2014, from http://www.kc.frb.org/publications/research/rwp/index.cfm
21. Drechsler, I. and Yaron, A. (2009). What’s Vol Got to Do with It. Accessed 18 August 2015, from http://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/itamar-drechsler
22. Düppe, T. (2010). Debreu’s Apologies for Mathematical Economics After 1983. Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, 3, 1, pp. 1-32.
23. Durongkaveroj, W. (2014). Framework and Application of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Accesses 5 November 2015, from http://wannaphong. blogspot.com/2014/11/framework-and-application-of-computable.html
24. Durrani, M. (2011). Can Biology Explain the Global Credit Crunch?. BBC News, 17 February. Accessed 6 January 2014, from http://www.bbc.com/news/business-12479998
25. Farmer, D. J. and Geanakoplos, J. (2009). The Virtues and Vices of Equilibrium and the Future of Financial Economics. Complexity, 14, 3, pp. 11-38.
26. Farmer, D. J. (2011). Macroeconomics from the Bottom up. 30 Ways to Be An Economist. Institute for New Economic Thinking. Accessed 30 August 2012, from http://ineteconomics.org/video/30-ways-be-economist/doyne-farmer-macroeconomics-bottom
27. Fernandez, P. (2015). CAPM: An Absurd Model. Social Science Research Network. Accessed 24 October 2015, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract _id=2505597
28. Fiske, S. T. (2015). Rational Actor Models: The Competence Corollary. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 329-330.
29. Flake, G. W. (1998). The Computational Beauty of Nature: Computer Explorations of Fractals, Chaos, Complex Systems, and Adaptation. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
30. Foerster, A., Rubio-Ramirez, J., Waggoner, D. and Zha, T. (2013). Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models. Research Working Papers #13-01. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Accessed 8 March 2013, from http://kansascityfed.org/ publications/research/rwp/rwp-2013.cfm
31. Foxley, J. (2013). Diversifying International Reserves: A Case for Going LatAm. The 6th Annual National Asset-Liability Management Conference, 23-24 July 2013 Singapore.
32. Foxton, T. J., Köhler, J., Michie, J., and Oughton, C. (2013). Towards a New Complexity Economics for Sustainability. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37, 1, pp. 187-208. doi: 10.1093/cje/bes057
33. Gershenson, C. and Heylighen, F. (2004). How Can We Think the Complex?. Accessed 14 March 2014, from http://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0402023
34. Goodhart, C., Tsomocos, D., and Shubik, M. (2013). Macro-Modelling, Default and Money. LSE Financial Markets Group Special Paper Series #224. Department of Finance. London School of Economics & Political Science. Accessed 20 March 2014, from http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/specialPapers/2013.aspx
35. Haidt, J. D. (2015). The Pursuit of Parsimony. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 493-495.
36. Haldane, A. G. and May, R. M. (2011). Systemic Risk in Banking Ecosystems. Nature, 469, pp. 351-355.
37. Haldane, A. G. and Nelson, B. (2012). Tails of the Unexpected. Speeches and Articles. Bank of England. Accessed 21 February 2013, from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ publications/Pages/speeches/2012/582.aspx .
38. Helbing, D. (2009). Systemic Risk in Society and Economics. SFI Working Paper. Accessed 14 March 2014, from: http://www.santafe.edu/research/working-papers/abstract/9596e 5a57d1f9b7e8fcc289f118555ce/
39. Helbing, D., ed. (2012). Social Self-Organization: Agent-Based Simulations and Experiments to Study Emergent Social Behavior. New York: Springer.
40. Helbing, D. (2015). Thinking Ahead: Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society. New York: Springer.
41. Helbing, D. and Balietti, S. (2010). Fundamental and Real-World Challenges in Economics. Science and Culture, 76 (9/10), pp. 399-417.
42. Ho, H. (2011). Making Sense of the Meltdown: New Approaches to Portfolio Construction & Risk Management. The 4th National Asset-Liability Management Conference, 7-8 July 2011 Singapore.
43. Holland, J. H. (1996). Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. New York: Basic Books.
44. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1981). The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice. Science, New Series, 211 (4481), pp. 453-458.
45. Kirman, A. (2010). The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory. CESifo Economic Studies, 56 (4/2010), pp. 498-535. doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifq017
46. Knutson, B. (2015). Emotional Is Peripheral. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 420-422.
47. Krugman, P. (2009). How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?. The New York Times, 2 September. Accessed 19 March 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/ 06/magazine/06Economic-t.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print
48. Levi, M. (2015). Homo Economicus. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 321-324.
49. Lorenz, E. N. (1995). The Essence of Chaos. Seattle: University of Washington Press.
50. Mandelbrot, B. and Hudson, R. L. (2008). The (Mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence. London: Profile Books.
51. McFadden, D. L. (2013). The New Science of Pleasure. NBER Working Paper No. 18687. National Bureau of Economic Research. Accessed 8 May 2013, from http://www.nber.org/papers/w18687
52. McClure, S. M. (2011). Our Brains Know Why We Do What We Do. In: M. Brockman, ed. Future Science: Cutting-Edge Essays from the New Generation of Scientists. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 114-126.
53. Mitchell, M. (2009). Complexity: A Guide Tour. New York: Oxford University Press.
54. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Downing Street Guru. (2012). Radio. BBC Radio 4, 12 March. 20.30 hrs.
55. Ormerod, P. (2006). Why Most Things Fail…And How to Avoid It. London: Faber and Faber.
56. Ormerod, P. (2012). Positive Linking: How Networks Can Revolutionize the World. London: Faber and Faber.
57. Orrell, D. (2010). Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong. Ontario: John Wiley & Sons Canada.
58. Oxford Dictionaries. (n.d). Positive Feedback. Oxford Dictionaries. Accessed 5 November 2015, from http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/positive-feedback?q= positive+feedback
59. Pentland, A. P. (2015). The Rational Individual. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 317-320.
60. Pongsaparn, R. (2008). A Small Semi-structural Model for Thailand: Construction and Applications. MPC Knowledge. Bank of Thailand. Accessed 23 May 2014, from https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyKnowledge/Pages/MacroModel.aspx
61. Railsback, S. F. and Grimm, V. (2012). Agent-Based and Individual-Based Modeling: A Practical Introduction. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
62. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
63. Santos, L. R. (2011). Too Err Is Primate. In: M. Brockman, ed. Future Science: Cutting-Edge Essays from the New Generation of Scientists. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 99-113.
64. Sbordone, A. M., Tambalotti, A., Rao, K., and Walsh, K. (2010). Policy Analysis Using DSGE Models: An Introduction. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 16, 2, pp. 23-43. Accessed 20 October 2015, from http://www.ny.frb.org/research/epr/10v16n2/1010sbor.html
65. Simon, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
66. Sironi, P. (2015). Modern Portfolio Management: From Markowitz to Probabilistic Scenario Optimization. London: Risk Books.
67. Sitthiyot, T. (2014). Measuring and Managing Risk within a Sovereign Framework: Time to Abandon Old Thinking. Finance and Fiscal Journal, 26, 81, pp. 72-76.
68. Slingerland, E. G. (2015). Scientific Morality. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 365-368.
69. Sornette, D. (2003). Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
70. Sutherland, R. (2014). This Thing for Which We Have No Name. Edge, 12 May. Accessed 14 May 2014, from http://edge.org/conversation/rory_sutherland-this-thing-for-which-we-have-no-name
71. Tanboon, S. (2008). The Bank of Thailand Structural Model for Policy Analysis. Bank of Thailand Discussion Paper DP/12/2008. Bank of Thailand. Accessed 14 March 2014, from http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/Understanding/Pages/MacroModel. aspx
72. Taleb, N. N. (2013). Hormesis Is Redundancy. In: J. Brockman, ed. This Explains Everything: Deep, Beautiful, and Elegant Theories of How the World Works. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 347-349.
73. Taleb, N. N. (2014). What We Learn from Firefighters: How Fat Are the Fat Tails?. In: J. Brockman, ed. What Should We Be Worried About?: Real Scenarios That Keep Scientists Up at Night. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 464-467.
74. Thaler, R. H. (1994). Quasi Rational Economics. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
75. Thaler, R. H. (2015). Don’t Discard Wrong Theories, Just Don’t Treat Them as True. In J. Brockman, ed. This Idea Must Die: Scientific Theories That Are Blocking Progress. New York: Harper Perennial, pp. 325-328.
76. The Economist. (2009). The Other-Worldly Philosophers. The Economist, 18 July, p. 59.The Love of Money Episode 1: The Bank That Bust the World. (2009). TV. BBC2, 10 September. 21.00 hrs.
77. The World Bank (2015). World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. Accessed 27 June 2015, from http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2015
78. United Nations. (2013). World Economic and Social Survey: Sustainable Development Challenges. Accessed 9 November 2015, from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa /policy/wess/archive.shtml
79. von Hayek, F. A. (1974). The Pretense of Knowledge. Nobelprize. Accessed 17 November 2014, from http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1974/ hayek-lecture.html
80. Waldrop, M. M. (1992). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Simon & Schuster Paperbacks.
81. Whitelaw, R. F. (2000). Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach. Reviews of Financial Studies, 13, 3, pp. 521-547.
Downloads
Published
2015-12-18
How to Cite
Sitthiyot, T. (2015). Macroeconomic and Financial Management in an Uncertain World: What Can We Learn from Complexity Science?. Thailand and The World Economy, 33(3), 1–37. Retrieved from https://so05.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/TER/article/view/137680
Issue
Section
Articles