Export Performance of Thailand: What Going on and Upcoming Challenges

Abstract

The paper aims to examine causes of export slowdown in Thailand, firstly noticed since 2013.  The adverse effect has been increased and widely affected other sectors as the global economic recovery has not reached the expectation. Even though Thailand diversified her export destination away from traditional markets like US and EU, this does not make her dependence of these market become less. Our key inference is Thailand should be well prepared for a circumstance where the global economy is in downturn.  Any short-run fiscal stimulus must be undertaken with cautious due to the budget constraints.  The stimulus should be directed to those who are seriously affected by the global economic slowdown to avoid public debt. In addition, promoting border trade with neighboring countries would be another policy recommendation to materialize advantage of Thailand at the center of Indochina region.   The longer-tern policy challenge is how to use government spending to crowding in private investment that yet fully recovered since Asian Financial Crisis. In this regard, spending priority matters.