Climate Management and Paris Agreement:  A Predictive Evaluation

Surender Mor; Ranjan Aneja; Sonu Madan

Authors

Surender Mor Department of Economics, Bhagat Phool Singh Mahila Vishwavidyalaya, India
Ranjan Department of Economics, Central University of Haryana, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5637-9553
Sonu Department of Economics, Central University of Haryana, India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8484-9313

Keywords:

ARDL, Climate Change, Carbon dioxide, Global Warming, Paris Agreement, Pledges

Abstract

The present endeavour attempts to assess the impact of increased carbon emissions on the global mean annual temperature by employing an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) on time series data for 1970-2020. The study aims to predict the expected increase in global mean temperature until 2100 by considering the mean annual temperature as the dependent variable, while taking carbon emissions as the independent variable. Additionally, control variables such as electricity from coal sources, energy imports, fossil fuel energy consumption, and water productivity are considered. The findings show that the expected increase in global mean temperature will be 4.1°C, which is higher than the temperature increase expected by the turn of the century. The conclusions reveal that the expected annual mean temperature increase is likely to surpass the 1.5°C and 2°C limits set in the Paris Agreement by 2029 and 2043, respectively. The study recommends a straight cut in global annual carbon emissions by 1.02% from the year 2029 and 0.94% from the year 2043 so as to meet the Paris Agreement targets and to make the planet Earth sustainable. Therefore, the study calls for technological solutions, strict compliance with the respective NDCs, technology transfer to the South, and quickly shifting to non-fossil fuels cumulatively to help the planet towards sustainability.

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