Oil Prices, Silver, Gold and Exchange Rate Relationship with Stock Market Returns in Indian Bourse with ARDL Model
Keywords:
ARDL Model, Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, Gold and Silver Rates, Stock MarketAbstract
Oil plays a very important role in the Indian economy and the stock market. In India, oil is key factor as nearly 85% of crude oil requirements are fulfilled through imports. It is believed that Indian stock market and crude oil are inversely proportional. In the past, it was seen that when crude oil fell more than 20%, then the Indian stock market offered good average returns of near about 19% Likewise silver, gold and exchange rates are also playing an important role in affecting the stock market of Indian economy. The objective of the present study is to see the relationship between Indian stock market and commodities such as oil, gold and silver as well as the exchange rates. The proxy used to represent the Indian stock market is Nifty. The models used for the analysis purposes were the ARDL and VAR models. The results showed that exchange rate and crude oil have a significant relationship with the stock market while other variables like gold and silver have an insignificant relationship, which means these did not have any impact on the stock market in the long run.
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