The Influencing Factors, Trade Efficiency, and Trade Potential of Exports Between Sichuan and ASEAN

Abstract

 Under the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, ASEAN has become the largest export market of Sichuan Province. Based on the export data between Sichuan and ASEAN countries from 2009 to 2022, this research utilizes the stochastic frontier gravity model as the main model and the trade inefficiency model as the secondary model to investigate the influencing factors, trade efficiency, and trade potential of Sichuan’s exports to ASEAN countries. The results show that the GDP of both sides, ASEAN countries’ transportation level, trade openness, economic freedom, and the institutional environment have positive effects, while the population of Sichuan appears negatively correlated. The gap between the trade efficiency and trade potential with different ASEAN countries is large, and generally, there is ample room for trade expansion.