An Empirical Discourse Analysis on Correlations between Exchange Rate and Agricultural Product Export

Abstract

This study’s objective focuses on empirically analysing the discourse on the correlations between exchange rate and agricultural product export, which is a part of a discourse has been reproduced constantly and extensively in Thai society by authorities from academic circles and public and private sectors. Hence, this study analyses the time series data of exchange rate and agricultural product export by means of advanced statistical methodologies, the regression analysis and Johansen’s cointegration test. The regression analysis finds that the exchange rate is negatively correlated to the agricultural product export, but Johansen’s cointegration test results contrariwise that there is no cointegrating relationship in-between. Therefore, such claim, even just on agricultural products, is not an error made in good faith but another example of domineering discourses enabling the elites to take advantages by disguising them as knowledge and truths, over which the other members in the society dare not to doubt nor dispute.