The impacts of climate change factors on rice production and climate-smart agriculture in the watershed areas of central Thailand
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on rice production and study the climate-smart agricultural practice for rice production. We apply the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) to obtain the efficiency estimators of rice production function. The panel data of rice production from 6 watershed areas in central provinces classify by planting season, namely, in-season rice (during 1981 to 2017) and off-season rice (during 1987 to 2017). The model for the future impact of 2030, 2060 and 2090 found that weather variability during growing season had a negative impact on rice production, especially the off-season rice in watershed areas. If the total rainfall increases by 1%, the downside risk of rice production will increase by 5.16% as the result of the watershed areas. Moreover, if the average maximum temperature increases by 1%, the downside risk of rice production will increase by 28.25% at 0.05 statistically significant level. Consequently, by simulating future effects, the average yield of rice will decrease by 3.05% to 28.97%, the variability of rice production will increase by 52.81% to 167.12% and the chance of loss on rice production will increase by 49.43% to 584.67%. The results of in-depth interviews from the sample of academics and model farmers found that a good practice for rice cultivation in the climate-smart agricultural framework are 1) adjusting production systems 2) implementing mobility and social network 3) introducing farm financial management 4) increasing diversification on and off the farm income and 5) applying knowledge management and regulations.
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