China 2035
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Abstract
One of the great puzzles of the early twenty-first century is predicting what world order will look like by midcentury. This short essay examines how Chinese futurologists are planning for the PRC to surpass the U.S. to become the most important country in the world by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC. It argues that China is moving from a defensive and inward-looking notion of the future, exemplified by former president Hu Jintao’s Harmonious World policy to a more offensive and expansionist view of the future that is informed by Xi Jinping’s China Dream policy, which includes a Sinocentric “World Dream.” However, it concludes Beijing’s plans are unlikely to succeed. Rather it is more likely that 2035 will see either 1) a fragmented world order that is neither unipolar nor bipolar, or 2) a continuation of the existing global liberal order, albeit in a more shallow incarnation. An important issue then is how Chinese people will respond if and when the PRC does not gain the world leadership that has been promised as ‘inevitable’ by Chinese leaders. The frustration of what is seen as an ‘unfair’ and ‘unjust’ denial of Chinese ambitions could cause enormous friction both domestically and internationally.
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