The Prediction of Future Performance on the Basis of Past Performance: An Empirical Study of Thai Equity Mutual Funds
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Abstract
The purpose of this research was to study the historical performance of equity funds in Thailand. A qualitative analysis was used. This research used qualitative analysis by surveying related documents and research as well as non-parametric tests and regression analysis. The Winner-Loser test model is used to analyze the persistence of equity mutual funds in Thailand by evaluating winners (W) and losers (L) in each time period. Winners (losers) for a given time period are determined to be equity mutual funds with rates of return greater than or equal to (lower than) the median rate of return of equity mutual funds in Thailand during that period. The results of the non-parametric test and the regression analysis of the monthly rates of return reflected the persistence of the monthly performance of equity mutual funds in Thailand during the study period from January 2010 to December 2021. However, the results of the non-parametric test of the annual rate of return showed that there was no persistence in the annual performance of equity mutual funds in Thailand during the study period from 2010 to 2021, especially during 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, the results of the regression analysis of the annual rate of return showed that there was a persistence of negative annual performance of equity mutual funds in Thailand during the study period from 2010 to 2021.
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