Social Return on Investment Analysis Framework: A Case Study of a Campaign to Reduce E-Cigarette Use Among Children and Youth
Keywords:
Social Return on Investment, SROI, Campaign to Reduce E-Cigarette, Children and YouthAbstract
This article presents a structured framework for Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis of an anti-e-cigarette campaign targeting youth in Thailand. Applying the Theory of Change model, a conceptual framework, procedures, and processes for analyzing Social Return on Investment (SROI), using a case study of a campaign project aimed at preventing e-cigarette use among children and youth. The analysis begins with the Theory of Change framework and evaluates the SROI according to international standards.
The primary target group includes 10,000 youths, their families, and the public health system. The project has a budget of 1,000,000 THB, covering costs for all activities and coordination. The Theory of Change outlines the assumptions used in the outcome evaluation. It assumes that 15% of the target group are at risk of starting to vape. The project effectiveness is estimated at 30%. The financial proxy, or the estimated lifetime healthcare cost savings per person, is 200,000 THB. The number of individuals at risk is 1,500, with 450 individuals expected to benefit directly. The total value of the benefits is estimated at 90,000,000 THB. Net impact is calculated over a 5-year horizon, adjusting for deadweight, attribution, and an annual drop-off rate of 10%. The present value of benefits, discounted at 5%, is 9,667,730 Baht. The resulting SROI ratio is 9.67:1, indicating that every 1 Baht invested returns 9.67 Baht in social value. Sensitivity analysis reveals that SROI range from 4:1 (worst case) to 15:1 (best case).
These findings demonstrate significant potential for cost-effective public health interventions.
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