Thailand’s Recovering post-COVID-19 Pandemic Better for Fiscal Sustainability

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability is a key concept and goal of fiscal policy to maintain stability in the medium and long term. The government needs to maintain strict fiscal discipline which covers terms of providing income, budgeting and public debt management. The forecast of Thailand’s public income and debt data for the next 3 years (the fiscal year 2021 - 2023), referring to the past 10 years, data from the fiscal year 2011 - 2020 and Forecasting Thailand’s budget data for the next 3 years (the fiscal year 2023 - 2025) based on 11-year historical data, data from the fiscal year 2012 - 2022, it was found that all 3 issues of fiscal tend to increase steadily. The fiscal status of income in 2020 decreased by 10.01 percent compared to the previous year. The fiscal status of budget in the fiscal year 2022 decreased by 5.66 percent compared to the previous year and public debt fiscal status in 2020 increased by 13 percent compared to the previous year. In the assessment of the fiscal disciplines, it was found that the average of the 3 issues of fiscal discipline was at the level according to the specified criteria. The most common fiscal rules are those that have a higher income target value relative to net realizable income. When analyzing the trend of Thailand’s recovering post-COVID-19 Pandemic Better for Fiscal Sustainability, it was found that adding new sources of income together with the strict and quality budget management, including (1) decentralization to the local treasury; (2) mobilization of assets: invest in new industries;
(3) Thailand’s transparency: upgrading and driving the economy and (4) Conquering Cryptocurrency that is a good recovery trend for Thailand can take concrete steps to be able to continue paying off the public debt that it has created.