The Impact of Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Thailand
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Abstract
This study examined the impact of changes in crude oil prices and exchange rates on the economic growth of Thailand by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships. The study used annual data from 1994 to 2024, with statistical data obtained from The World Bank Group, Statista, and Trading Economics Thailand. The results indicated that, in the long run, crude oil prices and exchange rates have significant effects on economic growth. Crude oil prices showed a positive relationship with economic growth, while the exchange rate showed a negative relationship. In the short run, the results revealed that past economic growth affected current economic growth in the same direction. Current crude oil prices stimulated the economy, whereas past oil prices had a negative impact on the economy.
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