Factors Influencing Exchange Rate of Baht against U.S. Dollar under COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand
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Abstract
This research article was to study the factors that influencing exchange rate of Baht against U.S. dollar COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand. We used monthly data from economic database of Thailand and U.S. for period 2020 - 2023 (47 Data) to be the sample in this research, based on a multiple regression technique (OLS) and Mundell Fleming model.
As a whole, the fluctuation in spot exchange rate of Baht against U.S. dollar was positively influenced by Thailand's public debt, nominal interest rates differential of Thailand and U.S., COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand (new death) and exchange rate of Baht against U.S. dollar in the past month.
On the other hand, exchange rate of Baht against U.S. dollar was negatively influenced by Thailand's international reserve. All these factors accounted for 95 percent of the variance explained by exchange rate of baht against U.S. dollar under COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand (R2 = 0.95, p < 0.01). Therefore,
the policymaker should perceive about the effect of economic factors of Thai and U.S. to stabilize exchange rate of Baht at the same time, should and perceive about risk management in all dimensions of crises, especially public health crisis that lead to economic crises.
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