UTILIZING FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR PURCHASE PLANNING TO REDUCE SHORTAGE PROBLEM: A CASE STUDY OF BEDDING AND HOME LIVING CATEGORY OF ABC PUBLIC COMPANY

Abstract

This research focuses on sales forecasting of mattresses and bedding products in light of the changes in consumer behavior caused by the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The intensifying competition within the industry necessitates effective pricing strategies and efficient inventory management. In order to address the issue of out-of-stock items during January to December 2022 at ABC Public Company Limited, this study examines five items: bed sheets (size 3"), bed sheets (size 3.5"), pillows, bolsters, and bed linen. Three forecasting methods, namely the weighted moving average forecasting method, exponential smoothing forecasting method, and double exponential smoothing forecasting method, are compared to determine their suitability and accuracy for each item. The data analysis was conducted using Microsoft Excel and Minitab. The study findings, company currently uses a weighted moving average forecasting technique, when comparing forecasting by other methods indicate that the X-smooth forecasting method yielded the lowest mean percentage of absolute error for four products, namely mattress pad (size 3"), mattress pad (size 3.5"), pillow, and bolster, suggesting its potential as an effective forecasting technique. For linen products, the weighted moving average forecasting method demonstrated superior performance.