Will plucked flowers bloom?: political opportunity and the rise of student movements in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand

Abstract

This comparative study describes the relationship between political opportunity and the rise and fall of student movements in three cases of student movements in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand from 2007 to 2020. The analysis is conducted in the political opportunity framework. For analysis and explanation, three key points influenced the political structure framework of student movements: 1) opening and closing political systems; 2) state or opposition repression; and 3) movement alliances and elite networks. Results were that student movements may emerge at times of increasing political openness and during shifts toward authoritarianism. Political instability is an essential condition conducive to the rise of student movements, unobstructed by severe, immediate state repression. However, gradual state repression of, and crackdown on, leadership figures may significantly impede student movement development. Additionally, seeking network alliances beyond students is required for student movement growth, including with national political elites to achieve student movement success.